Global Stock Exchange: Slightly higher due to good economic indicators and China's stimulus package announcement
Global stock markets closed strongly during the week. U.S. stocks rose slightly on the back of favorable employment and economic indicators. In May, the number of non-agricultural employees reached 390,000, more than 650,000 compared to the consensus. The average hourly wage is 5.2% YoY, which remains high despite slowing growth (5.6% in March and 5.5% in April). The U.S. ISM manufacturing index also recorded 56.1 percent in May, exceeding the consensus of the previous month. The rise in the ISM manufacturing index is due to an increase in new orders (53.5 → 55.1), production (53.6 → 54.2), and order balance (56.0 → 58.7). China's stock market has risen since June on the back of the lifting of the city's total lockdown and a rebound in Caixin manufacturing and service PMI. On top of that, Prime Minister Li Keqiang's 33-point stimulus policy and automobile consumption stimulus policy were unveiled, easing the sentiment of avoiding risky assets. With the 20th party congress ahead, China's stimulus policy is expected to continue, creating a favorable environment for the stock market
Domestic stock markets: High prices and growing downward pressure on the economy
The weekly domestic stock market closed lower as high prices and downward pressure on the economy increased. Domestic consumer price growth in May recorded +5.2% YoY (+0.7% MoM), the highest level since the financial crisis.
The Bank of Korea expects high inflationary pressure in the 5% range to continue for the time being. Domestic exports hit +21.3% YoY in May, compared with +10.7% on average, as international oil prices and food prices continued to rise. Domestic exports maintained a good trend, but downward pressure on growth increased as the trade balance recorded a deficit for the second consecutive month
◇ US Company REPORT
1. [Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)] - One signal of an escalating rebound
the world's largest online travel agency
World's largest online travel agency (OTA) online in more than 220 countries
It provides travel reservation services. 6 famous online travel agencies, Brans
It has five subsidiary brands with Dewa, one of the core brands
Booking Dotcom has an overwhelming 68% share of the European OTA market
This is the above company. The composition by sales type is Agency (61%), Merchant (34%), Kwang
It consists of a high (5%) and by region, Europe (79%) has the highest proportion.
Companies that benefit the most from open borders and recovering demand for summer vacation
① High exposure to European markets compared to US-centric competitors
It has a structural strength in terms of completion rate. Large hotel chains dominate
Small and medium-sized hotels with higher commission rates in Europe compared to the U.S
This is because it is high as ② Booking Dotcom is a loyal customer with direct access
It's relatively heavy, so the marketing costs that you pay for search engines are relatively high
The ratio of marketing/sales costs to sales in 2019 before the pandemic is small
39%, significantly lower than competitor Expedia (50%), 32%
Profitability compared to Expedia, which recorded a net profit margin of only 5%
have proved superior in ③ Hotel reservation rates in the U.S. and Europe
ADR is rising along the way. The impact of the Russo-Woo War on demand is present
Ashes are found to be limited, highly profitable European bookings
In view of the increase, the demand for the upcoming summer vacation season has benefited the most
Judging by this ball OTA.
Already sales beyond the pandemic. Expect explosive growth from summer
Room night in April is +10% compared to 2019 (Russia/Ukraine/Belaru)
Excluding S, +16% exceeded the level of 2019 for the first time since the pandemic
In addition to the increase in ADR, Gross books increased by +30%. woman
Gross reading during the summer vacation season is 15% higher than in 2019
Western Europe and North America bookings are 30% higher, the biggest summer vacation season ever
I'm looking forward to yoga. Adjusted Q2 if top-line growth like April continues
EBITDA expects more than $900 million. a recovery in travel demand
Stocks have already transferred to the pandemic as expectations for are reflected in the stock price
He jumped over Jun. Need to meet market expectations projected at stock price level
I feel a lot of pressure, but since this summer, I've been growing like a tower
I expect to be able to prove it with 12M PER is still 21.2x
Stock price rises below pre-pandemic levels and driven by future earnings growth
It is judged to be a highly attractive company.
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■ Chinese stock market investment strategy
1. [China's investment strategy] The floor is solid Meritz Corporation
- China's relative bullish outlook in the global stock market in the second half. Unlike overseas tightening, the economic stimulus momentum is highlighted amid low inflation
- In particular, moves to ease regulations in the private sector, such as COVID-19, real estate, and big tech, are positive for the self-sustaining recovery of the private economy, which has been suppressed over the past year and a half
- Prefer the Mainland market to Hong Kong, which has a high exposure to external variables. In terms of industries, semiconductors, secondary batteries, and big tech, which had significant adjustments compared to profits, are effective in trading strategies due to the emphasis on the policy momentum
2. [China Ev Insight] PHEV Jinyoung's solo Hyundai Motor Securities Co., Ltd
The PHEV camp's dominance in the electric vehicle stock market, which began with the recent easing of lockdowns, is on the rebound
Shares of PHEV (BYD/Rioto) flagship companies are particularly strong. The lead of "PHEV Jinyoung" is
①Due to the expansion of the launch and application model of the new PHEV system by major companies, 이를 the increase in sales volume observed through this, and 개 the positive market response from individual companies
PHEV, which is resilient to the effects of new cars, has been around since the end of last year, including Lemon DHT), Changan (Ranjing IDD),
The first application model of the new PHEV system of Jiji (Hi·X) and Gwangju (Jjurang) automakers will be on the market and will be reflected in sales in earnest from the second quarter. Thanks to the effect of new cars, there is also a significant increase in PHEV sales in China this year. PHEV's market share of eco-friendly cars, which remained in the 20% range due to the BEV halo last year, has recovered 30% again. Apart from market trends, the two core PHEVs (BYD/Rioto) support a rebound in stock prices due to individual favorable factors
1. BYD: PHEV performance above BEV
PHEV exceeded BEV for the first time in BYD electric vehicle sales in May. This is significant considering the impact of production disruptions (MoM-47%) on small BEV models. Expectations for the future performance of BYD's bestselling Han model with the new PHEV system in April are also high. BYD, which has not been able to do its best in the PHEV family car market, has begun to explore the family car market with this launch
2. Leo - The new car (L9) is finally on the move
The release date of Rio's new model L9 (large SUV), which had been in doubt due to its continued public postponement, has finally been confirmed. Online and offline open events (specification and marketing) on June 21, test drive in July, and India in August. Initial production is expected to contribute more than 10% of total sales by planning about 1,000 units
■ Special Report
1. [Macro Forecast for the Second Half of the Year] The Forecast of Asset Price due to Global Supply Chain Reorganization
Global inflation remains high due to rising prices of international raw materials due to the Russian and Ukrainian wars and supply chain delays due to the re-proliferation of Corona in China, and the possibility of a prolonged period gradually increases
While the possibility of stagflation is growing due to high inflationary pressure and slowing global economic momentum, the Fed's acceleration of austerity has also raised concerns about recession
Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas and crude oil, and the economic and political leader Germany is slowing down its psychological and real indicators, and the ECB is rushing to normalize its monetary policy to curb high inflation, but fiscal soundness is inevitable
The U.S. is rebuilding its supply chain based on the IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), and China is speeding up the establishment of a red supply chain by leading the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). Global Value Chain (GVC) is rapidly reshaping from Globalization to Blocking or Re-Globalization
As the Korean economy faces a triple crisis in which high prices, high interest rates, and high exchange rates simultaneously occur, the possibility of worsening domestic inflation, bad effects on the domestic economy, and the current account is increasing. Also, due to the impact of China's blockade and supply chain shock, economic growth in the second half is expected to slow down
As a result of classifying the U.S. inflation phase and analyzing the performance of major assets, all raw materials (industrial metals, agricultural products, precious metals, energy, etc.) achieved a positive (+) real return in a situation of high inflation. Stocks and bonds showed negative (-) real returns in an environment where inflation was high, but the relative preference for bonds, which are safe assets, was considered high
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